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Poker Odds Cheat Sheet
09:3829 Jan
The Postlegate scandal has finally seen the alleged cheat, Mike Postle, respond to the $10million lawsuit brought against him – Postle acknowledging that he received the summons that the plaintiffs attempted to serve several times earlier this month.
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- Anonymous Claims That Mike Postle Played At Other Casinos During Alleged Cheating Streak
Haley Hintze, writing for KickAssPoker, revealed that Postle filed a document on January 24th, accepting that he has been served with the complaint, and that he is representing himself for the time being.
We reported recently on attempts made by lawyer Mac Verstandig to serve Postle with notice of the lawsuit, Verstandig claiming that seven attempts were made without success.
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The final attempt, earlier this month, saw Verstandig himself doorstep Postle and claim that the alleged cheat was hiding in his home at the time.
Postle is accused of five separate charges in the civil case, including violation of RICO statutes, fraud and unjust enrichment.
Also facing court action are Stones Gambling Hall owners, Kings Casino (not related to Leon Tsoukernik’s Czech cardroom of the same name) as well as Justin Kuraitis, the Stones poker-room manager.
Hintze reported that Postle signed the document earlier this week as a ‘pro se’ defendant – meaning that he is currently representing himself.
Earlier reports on the scandal saw lawyer William Portanova speaking on Postle’s behalf, although he has since distanced himself from the case.
Hintze reports that Sacramento attorney Richard Pachter will be representing Kuraitis, and writes that a 28-day extension has been given that allows Postle time ‘to retain a defense attorney and to file an initial response to the civil complaint’.
Though the vast majority of the poker community are already convinced of Postle’s guilt, Twitter and poker forums have been beset by new accounts claiming otherwise.
None of these, however, have come forward with an argument against Postle’s perfect – theoretically impossible - play while staring at the phone hidden in his crotch.
Once the flop has been dealt in Texas Hold'em, you'll be able to count your outs and know how likely it is your hand will improve. That will tell you whether you should stay in the hand or fold.
You can figure out your outs and odds for any hand, but here is a quick and dirty list of the most common scenarios:
Texas Hold'em Cheat SheetOdds Based on Outs after the Flop
If after the flop, you have:
Two outs: Your odds are 11 to 1 (about 8.5 percent)
A common scenario would be when you have a pair and you are hoping your pair becomes a three-of-a-kind (a set).
Four outs: Your odds are 5 to 1 (about 16.5 percent)
A common scenario would be when you are trying to hit an inside straight draw (there are 4 cards of one number that will complete the straight) or you have two pairs and you hope to make a full house (there are three cards remaining of one number and two of the other).
Eight outs: Your odds are 2 to 1 (about 31 percent)
A common scenario would be that you have an open-ended straight draw. There are four remaining cards of two different numbers that will complete your straight, on the high end and on the low end.
Nine outs: Your odds are 2 to 1 (about 35 percent)
This is the common scenario when you have a flush draw. Any of the nine remaining cards of the suit will give you a flush.
Fifteen outs: Your odds are 1 to 1 (about 54 percent)
A scenario for this is having a straight and flush draw, where either any of the nine remaining cards of the suit will give you a flush, while there are four cards remaining of each of two numbers that would complete a straight. However, you don't count the same cards twice as outs, so those of suit you hope to get don't count again.
The Rule of Four and Two
These odds only apply to counting both the turn and the river, so they assume you will stay in the hand until the showdown. Your odds are only about half as good for a single card draw, such taking the hit on the turn or taking the hit on the river. A common way of looking at the difference in the odds when you will be seeing two cards compared with one is called the Rule of 4 and 2.
After the flop, count your outs and multiply them by four to get your percentage odds. This doesn't give you an exact number, but it is quickly in the ballpark. With 15 outs, 4 x 15 = 55 percent you'll complete that straight or flush with the next two draws.
However, when you are calculating the odds that a single draw will improve your hand, you multiply the outs by two rather than 4. With 15 outs, 2 x 15 = 30 percent chance.